🚀 Budget 2025: Can It Deliver Tax Cuts and Boost Growth? (Jan 18)

Happy Saturday, chai enthusiasts! ☀️ It’s SATURYAY, and as the weekend vibes kick in, we’ve brewed a newsletter packed with budget buzz, global market action, and some Elon Musk spice!

Plus, mark your calendars—tomorrow we’re diving into the frothy brilliance of Bira91 in a special case study 🍺. Grab your cup, and let’s sip through today’s hottest headlines!

📰 Chai Shots

• 📉 Forex Dip Alert: India's forex reserves dropped by $8.71 billion, standing at $625.87 billion for the week ended January 10. The fall reflects RBI's efforts to stabilize the rupee amidst global fluctuations.

• 📱 TikTok Ban Looms Large: The US Supreme Court upholds a ban unless ByteDance divests TikTok. Trump’s incoming administration might offer a lifeline.

• 💳 UPI Goes Global: Indian travelers can now use UPI at Dubai Duty Free. More expansions are planned across the UAE and beyond.

• 💰 Bitcoin Blazes Past $100K: Crypto enthusiasts cheer as Bitcoin crosses the $105,000 mark. Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including a potential “crypto czar,” signal brighter days for the digital currency market.

• 🇱🇰 China’s $3.7 Billion Sri Lanka Deal: China’s biggest FDI in Sri Lanka funds an oil refinery under the Belt and Road Initiative. Concerns rise in India as the project strengthens Beijing’s foothold near the Hambantota port.

📈 Market Masala: 🇮🇳 Indian Markets’ 3-Day Rally Ends

Sensex fell -0.6%, and Nifty dropped -0.5%, driven by FII selling and mixed Q3 earnings

• Key Movers: Infosys fell 6% after weak Q4 guidance, while Reliance Industries gained 2.5% on strong profits.

• Global Worries: Concerns over Donald Trump’s trade policies and tariffs added to the cautious sentiment.

• Earnings Watch: 💹 Wipro's Profit Jumps: Wipro's Q3 profit surged 24.4% to ₹3,354 crore, with a modest 0.5% revenue growth to ₹22,319 crore.

  • 💸 Dividend Alert: Announced an interim dividend of ₹6 per share and updated its capital allocation policy, committing to a 70% payout ratio over three years.

🌍 Global Masala

• 📈 Tech revival leads Wall Street surge: The US markets turned a corner this week, with the Nasdaq jumping 1.8% as tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla staged a comeback. Housing starts also outperformed expectations, showcasing a resilient US economy.

• 🔥 LA Wildfires’ $20B Toll: California faces massive losses as wildfires devastate thousands of homes. Insurance companies brace for what could be the costliest wildfire event in the state’s history.

• 🇪🇺 EU vs. Musk: The EU gives Elon Musk until February 15 to provide transparency on X's (formerly Twitter) algorithms amidst concerns over amplifying far-right content. The battle heats up under the Digital Services Act.

• 🌐 Honest Talk on Tariffs: Garcetti called for "honest conversations" on India’s tariff regime, aligning with President-elect Trump’s stance for fairer trade. He emphasized the need for bold steps to reduce reliance on China and elevate India-US supply chain collaborations.

☕ The Big Brew: Budget 2025 – Can It Deliver for India?

Union Budget 2025 is almost here, and the buzz is real! With Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepping to present her eighth budget on February 1, India is brimming with expectations. Let’s spill the chai on what’s brewing:

Key Expectations

• Tax Relief: The middle class is manifesting tax breaks! Many believe the 30% tax rate should only hit incomes above ₹40 lakh per annum. More rebates on housing loans, car purchases 🚗, and durables 🛋️ could help reignite spending.

• Consumption Boost: With slowing demand—especially among middle- and lower-income groups—expectations are high for measures to put more cash back into people’s hands.

• Jobs & Investments: As GDP growth slows to 6.4% (lowest in four years), more capital spending and private sector-friendly policies are critical to keeping India’s economy bustling.

🌡️ Reality Check

• Raghuram Rajan’s Worry: The former RBI chief warns of trouble for the lower middle class as urban demand dips 📉 and food inflation bites 🍅. His take? Private sector involvement is key—government spending alone won’t sustain growth.

• Slowing Festive Sales: Festive consumption growth fell to 15% in 2024, a steep drop from 32% in 2023. Mixed retail trends suggest that bold moves are needed to spark spending.

⚖️ Industry Concerns

• Over-Regulation Woes: India’s investment rules are feeling like a traffic jam! Asset managers want streamlined policies, especially for Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs), to boost India’s appeal to both domestic and global investors.

Overall, this budget could shake up your tax savings 🤑, spending power 💳, and even your job prospects! If the government delivers on tax cuts and pro-consumption policies, it’s not just the economy that’ll benefit—it’s your wallet too.

🚀 Startup Scoop

• Aditya Birla Group Goes Big on Jewellery: The group’s new brand Indriya plans to open 100 stores in 18 months, targeting India’s ₹6.7-trillion branded jewellery market. Franchise partnerships will lead the charge as the conglomerate aims for rapid scale.

• 📦 Zomato’s Big Boost for Blinkit: Zomato infused ₹500 crore into its quick commerce arm Blinkit, taking its total investment to ₹2,800 crore since acquiring the platform in 2022. Facing stiff competition from Swiggy, Zepto, and BigBasket, Blinkit is scaling aggressively, aiming for 1,000 dark stores by March 2025 and recently launching Bistro, a 10-minute food delivery service.

• 🧴 Foxtale’s Revenue Soars Amid Losses: D2C skincare brand Foxtale reported a 6x revenue growth to ₹83 crore in FY24, up from ₹14 crore in FY23. However, its losses widened to ₹55 crore due to increased advertising and employee expenses.

💡 Chai Break Trivia

Did you know?
UPI is now available in seven countries outside India, with plans to expand to 4–6 more in 2025. It handled a staggering 16.75 billion transactions in December 2024, proving its global potential as a payment powerhouse.

🔮 What’s Brewing Next?

• Budget 2025 Unveiled: Parliament’s Budget session kicks off Jan 31, with FM Sitharaman presenting the Union Budget on Feb 1. Expect tax relief, infrastructure investments, and tourism incentives.

• Trump's TikTok Tangle: With the clock ticking on TikTok’s US ban, all eyes are on Elon Musk and his potential move to buy the app. Drama guaranteed!

• Crypto Fever: Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 again as Trump promises crypto-friendly policies. A “Crypto Ball” celebrates his inauguration this week!

That’s it for today’s chai fix! ☕ The countdown to Budget 2025 continues, and markets, tech, and policy are keeping the brew bubbling.

Don’t forget to join us tomorrow for the Bira91 case study—a crisp look at how the brand cracked India’s beer market 🍺. Until then, enjoy your weekend, stay curious, and we’ll see you in the next brew! ✌️