📉 Fi Falls as UPI Flies Past Visa

☀️ Monday Masala: July 14, 2025

Hope you had a restful weekend — or at least got that nap between lunch and chai. We’re back after the break with a piping hot pour of everything you missed (and everything that’s coming).

From Ambani’s new digital jugaad to a desi astro unicorn aiming for the stars, and Tesla plugging into India — today’s edition is packed tighter than your dabbawala’s tiffin.

Let’s dive into the Monday madness 👇

☕ Chai Shots

• 💸 UPI dethrones Visa as world’s #1 payment system: UPI is now processing over 650 million transactions daily, zooming past Visa’s 639 million and doing it across just 7 countries. That’s India’s digital payments flex on global steroids — all in under a decade. Former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant called it a “phenomenal” moment and a hallmark of India’s fintech leap.

• 🖥️ Ambani wants your TV to double as a PC: JioPC, a new cloud desktop service by Jio, will let users access a virtual PC through their TV using the Jio set-top box. Plug in a keyboard and mouse, and you're good to go. With only 15% of Indian homes owning a PC (but 70% owning a TV), this could be a low-cost digital gateway for millions.

• 🧘 Fi Money hits rough patch despite $137M funding: Neobank Fi is facing layoffs, product cuts, and a funding crunch after its core lending business stalled. Despite 3M+ users and major VC backing, Fi’s future is uncertain as it battles regulatory constraints and poor monetisation. More in the Big Brew!

• 🇸🇬 Singapore outperforms with 4.3% GDP growth: Defying global uncertainty, Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in Q2, led by manufacturing. But with 10% U.S. tariffs still looming, the island nation remains cautious about future trade headwinds.

📈 Market Masala

• 🧮 Mysterious Nifty straddle trades raise SEBI's eyebrows: Traders have spotted unexplained price spikes in straddle options on the Nifty 50 Index — especially on expiry days. These anomalies suggest potential market manipulation, prompting SEBI to widen its investigation into abnormal options activity, following its earlier ban on Jane Street.

• 🇨🇳 Chinese investors head for the exit: Udaan, Pocket FM, and Vedantu are planning to buy back stakes from Chinese investors as hopes fade for relaxed FDI norms. With policy unchanged, more startups may follow suit to de-risk future fundraises.

• 🧳 VIP Industries promoters exit with ₹1,764 crore deal: The company’s promoters sold 32% stake to Multiples PE and other investors. The deal triggers an open offer, potentially leading to greater institutional control over India’s largest luggage brand.

• ☕ Costa Coffee brews 31% growth in FY25: Revenue touched ₹198.5 crore and store count rose to 220. Despite rising input costs, Costa is eyeing 40–50 new stores a year as it competes with Starbucks, Tim Hortons, and desi cafés like Blue Tokai and Third Wave.

• 📅 Looking at the Week Ahead:

  • CPI and WPI inflation numbers will test the pulse of household budgets and RBI's next move.

  • Q1 earnings take centre stage with HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Axis Bank, and Bandhan Bank reporting.

  • IPOs of Anthem Biosciences and Smartworks go live, while TCS, Dabur, and Airtel go ex-dividend — watch those share prices closely!

🌍 Global Masala

• 📉 Asia-Pacific markets open in the red: Regional stocks fell Monday morning as investors digested the US tariff news. China’s upcoming GDP and industrial data will be crucial to watch for more direction.

• 🛡️ EU holds off retaliation over U.S. steel tariffs: Brussels has extended the pause on its counter-tariffs as it tries to strike a deal with Washington. The current suspension was set to expire this week — now, August is the new D-Day for any EU response.

• 🇺🇸 Trump’s 30% tariffs hit markets — again: Trump’s fresh tariffs on Mexico and the EU, effective August 1, sent Dow futures tumbling nearly 200 points. Leaders are still negotiating, but fears of inflation and global retaliation are keeping traders on edge.

• 📅 Looking at the Week Ahead:

  • U.S. CPI and retail sales data will shape Fed rate expectations.

  • Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, report earnings this week.

  • Netflix kicks off tech earnings season; ASML, TSMC, PepsiCo, and AmEx also in the spotlight.

☕ The Big Brew 🏦 Fi Money’s Future Looks Faint — Is India’s Neobank Dream Cracking?

India’s neobanking poster child, Fi Money, is in serious trouble — and it’s raising bigger questions about whether neobanks can actually survive in India’s heavily regulated financial system.

Once flying high with over $137 million in funding and a slick app offering everything from savings to US stock investments, Fi is now in cost-cutting mode, battling a cash crunch, mass layoffs, and a shrinking product lineup.

Here’s how the fortune turned:

• 🚫 Lending business flopped: Fi’s biggest revenue stream — personal loans — has been scaled back dramatically. Despite claiming NBFC infra, it still runs a loan distribution model and doesn’t have an RBI licence.

• 📉 High burn, low return: Fi spent ₹132 crore on marketing in FY23 but attracted users with weak lifetime value. In FY23, it made just ₹38 crore in revenue… while losing ₹300 crore.

• ❌ Shrinking runway: Sources say Fi had 18 months of cash in December 2024. That’s down to 10 months by March 2025. No new funding in sight.

• 💔 Features cut, users confused: Mutual fund and stock investments? Axed. Rewards and perks? Slashed. AI features added, but user engagement is dropping. Refunds are delayed, support is messy, and users feel stuck between Fi and its partner bank, Federal.

• 🧑‍💼 Team downsized: Headcount has dropped below 100, with over 50 exits in three months. Product teams are stalling. Meanwhile, newer players and traditional banks are crowding the same digital turf.

🧠 What does this mean?

Neobanks in India — like Fi, Jupiter, and Open — can’t hold banking licences, which means they’re forever tied to a bank’s backend. That limits autonomy and margins. Unlike the West, Indian neobanks face tougher monetisation, stricter RBI scrutiny, and a frugal customer base that isn’t ready to pay premium fees.

Fi’s fall could be a warning bell: the neobank model might need a reboot — or a banking licence — to truly survive in India.

🚀 Startup Scoop

• 🔮 AstroTalk aims for the unicorn zodiac: The astrology giant is raising up to $100M at a $1.5B valuation — a 5x jump from last year. With ₹1,182 Cr in FY25 revenue and ₹250 Cr profit, it’s prepping for an IPO and scaling its spiritual D2C products.

• 💘 Shaadi.com launches AstroChat to read your stars: Parent company People Group is expanding into spiritual tech with a new astrology app. AstroChat already has 250 astrologers and over 1 lakh customers, tapping into India’s booming $58B spiritual economy.

• 🍛 Cookd whips up ₹16 Cr for spicy expansion: Chennai-based Cookd, known for its biryani kits and chef-led content, is going deeper in Tamil Nadu and entering Kerala. With 6M+ followers and 150M monthly video views, it’s cooking with content + commerce.

• 🍺 Bira bubbles up with fresh funding: Bira’s parent raised $10M via a rights issue led by DS Group. As craft beer competition intensifies, this gives Bira more fizz to expand distribution and offerings.

• 🤖 AI therapy chatbots raise red flags: A Stanford study warns that chatbots like those on 7cups and Character.ai may reinforce stigma against people with mental health conditions like schizophrenia or alcohol dependence. Even worse, some bots failed to intervene during suicidal ideation prompts, instead giving casual answers — prompting serious concerns about their role in healthcare.

❓Chai Break Trivia

🧠 Did you know: Despite Elon Musk’s controversies and political endorsements causing backlash in Europe, Tesla’s Model Y still dominated Norway’s EV market, with a 213% surge in May. Norway’s EV love is so strong, even politics can’t derail it.

🔭 What’s Brewing Next

• ⚡ Tesla opens first India showroom this week: Elon Musk’s EV empire will officially roll into Mumbai’s BKC on July 15. Deliveries begin in August, and a Delhi showroom follows later this month.

👋 That’s a Wrap!

From cosmic consultations to crafty coal policy changes, Monday’s brew was loaded. As the inflation data week kicks off and IPOs roll in, remember: In India, even the stars are part of your portfolio.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more chai, charts, and cheeky takes.

Until then — invest smart, sip slow, and don’t trust Mercury retrograde.
☕
— Team Masala Chai