🔥 IMF Boosts India’s Growth & ⚠️ US Tariffs Loom

☀️ Good morning! It’s Wednesday, and we’re tariff-ied 🫣

With just two days to go before the US tariff hammer could drop on India, markets are bouncing, startups are racing to IPO before the storm, and Spotify’s share price just did a mic drop. But don’t worry—we’ve turned the chaos into crisp chai shots so you can sip through the suspense and stay smarter than your portfolio.

Let’s get steeped ☕👇

🫖 Chai Shots

• 📈 IMF Upgrades India to 6.4% Growth in 2025 & 2026: India retains its crown as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The IMF also nudged global growth to 3.1% in 2026. But risks remain—especially if US tariffs bounce back up.

• 📉 TCS Market Value Drops ₹28K Cr in 2 Days: After announcing layoffs impacting 2% of its global workforce (around 12,000 employees), TCS saw its stock dip 2.5% in two days. Most exits will hit mid and senior roles as the company pivots hard into AI and “future-ready” teams.

• ⚡ BluSmart Enters Insolvency as EV Dreams Stall: The NCLT has admitted BluSmart’s insolvency for a ₹1.28 Cr default. With key backer Gensol also under insolvency, and SEBI probing financial misdeeds, the once-hyped electric cab unicorn is now in deep freeze.

• 🌍 India–US Trade Talks Continue As Tariff Deadline Nears: As the August 1 US tariff deadline approaches, India is sticking to its pace. Negotiations with Washington are set to resume on August 25, and while exporters may face near-term pressure, officials are focusing on long-term interests. More in the Big Brew 👇

📈 Market Masala

• 📊 Markets Shake Off Worries, End in the Green: The Sensex jumped 447 points to 81,338 and the Nifty surged 140 points to 24,821, after a US official hinted at ongoing trade talks with India. Mid-cap and small-cap indices rose over 1%, with Reliance, L&T, and Asian Paints leading the gains.

• 📱 Jio Adds 2.2M Users, Airtel Trails, Vi Slips Again: Jio continued to dominate wireless subscriber growth in June, while Airtel added 1.03M users. Vi and BSNL lost ground again. Jio now commands 41% of India’s mobile market and leads in broadband too.

• 📉 Vi & BSNL’s Active Users Continue to Decline: TRAI data shows Vodafone Idea’s active user base fell to 84.5% of its total, while BSNL’s dropped to a worrying 63%. In contrast, Airtel and Jio maintain over 97% activation rates—a key metric for telecom investors.

• ✈️ IndiGo Q1 Profit May Dip Despite 8% Revenue Rise: Analysts expect IndiGo’s bottom line to fall up to 20% QoQ due to lower yields, weaker load factors, and engine-related capacity issues—even as revenue touches ₹21,000 Cr. Commentary on P&W engine grounding will be key.

• 🛢️ Reliance, ONGC & BP Join Hands to Drill in Saurashtra: The three energy majors signed a joint operating agreement for offshore exploration of a 5,454 sq. km block in Gujarat’s Saurashtra Basin. ONGC will lead the ops, with RIL and BP as partners.

🌎 Global Masala

• 📉 US Stocks Slip as China Talks Stall, Fed Looms: The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, Dow shed 204 points, and Nasdaq slid 0.38% amid stalled US-China talks and a hawkish Fed mood. Boeing dropped 4% despite solid results; UPS and Whirlpool also disappointed.

• 🍏 Apple Closes First China Store Ever: Apple is shutting its Parkland Mall store in Dalian, citing declining retail activity. The move comes as China battles deflation, and Apple doubles down on India—with exports and iPhone assembly shifting from China to Bharat.

• ☕ Starbucks Says Recovery Is Brewing Despite Sales Dip: Global same-store sales fell for a sixth straight quarter. But North America showed improvement, and CEO Brian Niccol says their hospitality playbook is delivering early results—especially with younger consumers.

☕ The Big Brew 📦💬 Trade Talks Tread Carefully

With the August 1 US tariff deadline around the corner, India finds itself navigating a tough trade moment with poise—not panic. The US may go ahead with a fresh round of 15–20% tariffs, but Delhi isn’t rushing into last-minute concessions.

Instead, India is playing the long game—keeping its strategic goals in sight while preparing for talks set to resume on August 25. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says quality matters more than speed, and that sentiment echoes India’s own stance: strong trade partnerships take time and trust.

What’s unfolding:

• 🇺🇸 Tariff Noise Grows: Trump’s team has floated higher duties on Indian exports, but specifics remain vague.

• 🇮🇳 India Keeps Its Cool: With no panic moves or policy U-turns, India’s commerce ministry is signaling confidence.

• 🔁 Business Adjusts: Some exporters pre-shipped goods to beat the deadline, but long-term demand remains intact.

• 💬 Talks on the Table: The sixth round of negotiations is already scheduled—Delhi isn't locked out, it's choosing deliberation over haste.

What does this mean?

India is showing it won’t be strong-armed into rushed deals. A short-term tariff hit (if it comes) might sting a few sectors, but the bigger story is India’s economic resilience and strategic maturity. With exports diversifying and global investors eyeing India as a China+1 hub, the outlook remains bullish. For now, it's all about keeping calm—and carrying on ☕🇮🇳

🚀 Startup Scoop

• 👓 Lenskart Files for ₹2,150 Cr IPO: India’s omnichannel eyewear king is going public. With FY25 profit of ₹297 Cr and revenue of ₹6,653 Cr, funds will go to tech, store expansion, and branding. SoftBank, ChrysCapital and Alpha Wave are among key selling investors.

• 📦 Zepto Revenue Zooms 150% to ₹11,110 Cr in FY25: The q-commerce rocket raised ₹7.5 Cr from Elcid Investment at a nearly $6B valuation, while planning a larger $500M fundraise. Zepto is now India’s second-largest in the space behind Swiggy’s Instamart.

• 💳 Zaggle to Buy Rio.Money for ₹22 Cr: The SaaS fintech is entering consumer credit cards with this deal. The acquired firm had just ₹13L in FY24 revenue, but Zaggle sees long-term synergy.

• ⚙️ Sharpsell.ai Gets ₹30 Cr to Power Sales Teams: The AI-powered SaaS platform raised Series A funding to expand into Southeast Asia and MENA. Its tools are used by LIC, Axis Bank, Mahindra, and more.

• 🍽️ Optipro AI Bags New Funding: The restaurant-focused SaaS startup will use the capital to expand across India and build out food delivery optimisation tools. Details remain under wraps.

🧠 Chai Break Trivia

💡 Did you know: Red Bull isn’t originally Western. It’s based on a Thai energy drink called Krating Daeng, discovered by Red Bull’s co-founder during a business trip in the 1980s. He added fizz, changed the label, and made it legendary 🐂🛫

🔮 What’s Brewing Next

• 👁️ Lenskart IPO Roadshow Incoming: After filing its DRHP, Lenskart is expected to kick off investor meets by mid-August.

• 📉 US Fed Decision Expected Today: Markets expect no rate hike, but Powell’s tone could spark fireworks in equities and gold.

Whether you’re betting on Lenskart’s clarity, dodging tariffs like Jio dodges Vi, or watching Spotify go from playlist to pitfall—this week’s market brew is bold and bubbling.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more masala. Until then, sip safe, trade wise, and never blink at Blinkit’s numbers 😎✌️

– Team Masala Chai