🛢️ OPEC’s Oil Flood Is Just Beginning

☀️ Good morning! It’s Monday, August 4

We’re back after the weekend with a brimming kettle of masala-soaked headlines: market nerves, oil politics, AI money showers, and a growing list of startups feeling the funding freeze. Pour yourself a hot one — this week’s looking as volatile as an IPO in 2022.

Let’s sip through the storm 🌪️👇

🫖 Chai Shots

• 🛢️ Big oil producers to pump more crude next month: The group of countries called OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, will raise oil supply by 547,000 barrels/day in September. The move could help keep fuel prices stable in India. More in the Big Brew 👇

• 🍽️ Swiggy’s investment in Rapido hits speed bump: Swiggy is reconsidering its stake in bike-taxi startup Rapido after the latter announced plans to enter food delivery — putting it in direct competition with Swiggy. With Rapido now the largest ride-hailing app by rides in India, the conflict-of-interest alarms are ringing loud in the Swiggy war room.

• 🪙 Shark Tank alumni Plus Gold winds down operations: The digital gold savings startup has officially ceased core operations after burning through its ₹10 crore seed funding. High operating costs and a dry funding pipeline forced the shutdown. Though the app is still active, it has been transitioned to a new operator — not an acquisition, but a brand and tech handover.

• 🕵️‍♂️ Axis MF’s former fund manager arrested in ₹200 Cr front-running probe: The ED has arrested Viresh Joshi, ex-chief trader at Axis Mutual Fund, over allegations he used insider trading tips to place personal trades ahead of the fund’s orders.

📈 Market Masala

• 🌎 Tariffs and rupee risk spook investors: A surprise 25% US tariff on Indian goods has added pressure to an already fragile market. The strengthening dollar is also making foreign borrowing more expensive and pushing up FII outflows.

• 🏦 All eyes on RBI’s August 8 policy decision: As inflation moderates and festive demand nears, analysts expect the RBI to consider a 25bps rate cut. A dovish stance could lift NBFCs, auto stocks, and housing finance firms. SBI has already called it a potential “early Diwali” moment for credit growth.

• 🛢 India holds ground on Russian oil, despite Trump pressure: No official directive has been issued to refiners to stop Russian crude purchases, though contingency planning is underway. India is still buying ~1/3rd of its oil from Russia, balancing energy needs with geopolitics.

• Looking at the Week Ahead:

  • 🔍 RBI policy decision (Aug 8): Investors are waiting to see if the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates. A 25bps cut could boost loans and lift rate-sensitive stocks.

  • 💸 FII flows in focus: After heavy selling last week, all eyes are on whether foreign investors continue pulling out.

  • 📊 Corporate results: More Q1 earnings will roll in — investors will be watching for signs of recovery in sectors like banking and FMCG.

  • 🧾 Trade tensions with US: Any update on India-US talks around tariffs or Russian oil could move markets.

🌍 Global Masala

• 📉 Global stocks falter amid economic slowdown fears: US indexes dropped sharply last week, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%, Nasdaq 2.2%, and Dow 1.2%. AI remains a bullish theme, but job data and protectionist policies are dragging investor sentiment.

• Looking at the Week Ahead:

  • 📉 US inflation & jobs hangover: Last week’s weak job numbers have raised hopes for a Fed rate cut. Any new economic data will add to market reactions.

  • 🏦 Rate cut watch: Global investors are pricing in a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September — expectations jumped to 83%.

  • 💼 Big corporate earnings: Over 120 major US companies will report results this week, including Disney and Palantir.

  • 🛢 Oil market watch: After OPEC+’s output hike, the focus now shifts to how prices react and whether Trump puts more pressure on oil buyers like India.

☕ The Big Brew: OPEC+ Turns the Oil Tap Back On

OPEC+, the group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is going full throttle. They've just announced another big oil production hike — 547,000 barrels per day for September — as part of a larger plan to win back market share from other global suppliers.

This is the fifth month in a row they’ve increased output, reversing earlier production cuts. In total, they’ve added nearly 2.5 million barrels per day back into the global market — which is around 2.4% of the world’s daily oil needs.

Here’s what’s going on:

• 🧯 Fighting for market share: OPEC+ used to cut supply to keep oil prices high. Now they’re focused on pushing more oil into the market to beat competitors and protect their turf.

• 🌍 Trump’s pressure adds fuel: US President Donald Trump is pushing countries like India to stop buying oil from Russia. This latest OPEC+ move may help offer alternative supplies.

• 📈 Oil keeps flowing: Since April, OPEC+ has been raising production in stages — 138k barrels in April, over 400k per month in May–July, 548k in August, and now another 547k for September. Yet, oil prices have stayed stable around $70 per barrel.

• 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia takes the lead: With its latest production quota at a 2-year high, Saudi is making a clear bid to take back control from US shale and smaller producers like Guyana and Brazil.

• 🛢 More to come? There's still around 3.65 million barrels per day under voluntary production cuts. A key meeting on September 7 will decide whether to increase output even more.

What does this mean?

• 📉 Good news for inflation: More supply could help keep oil prices stable or lower — great for countries like India where fuel prices directly affect inflation.

• 🇮🇳 India saves — but watch the politics: For now, India benefits from cheaper oil. But tensions with the US over buying Russian oil could make things tricky.

• ⚠️ Risk ahead: If demand drops (especially from big buyers like China), the market could get flooded, dragging oil prices down hard — possibly under $60.

For now, OPEC+ seems confident. But the real test will come if prices fall faster than expected or if global demand slows.

🚀 Startup Scoop

• 🔐 Safe Security raises $70M to build autonomous AI threat defense: Bengaluru-based Safe, incubated at IIM-B, secured a hefty round to build CyberAGI — an AI that proactively mitigates cyber risks across enterprise layers. Already serving Google, Chevron, and T-Mobile, the firm is fast becoming a cybersecurity heavyweight.

• 🤖 Bhindi AI secures $4M to build your 24/7 AI clone: The startup’s “background agents” mimic human workflows — from crypto alerts to code reviews. With 5,000+ users and 300 agents in action, it’s turning heads in the productivity and fintech space. Investors include Cyber Fund and backers of Fluid DeFi.

• 🎮 Google fuels India’s Discord rival STAN with fresh funding: STAN raised $8.5M from Google and Japanese gaming giants like Bandai Namco and Square Enix. The app allows users to win “Gems” by playing BGMI, Free Fire, and more, which can be redeemed for Amazon or Flipkart vouchers. With 25M+ downloads and 5.5M monthly users, STAN plans to expand globally and roll out new AI creator tools.

• 💸 OpenAI raises $8.3B as business subscriptions cross 5M: OpenAI’s latest raise was 5x oversubscribed. Dragoneer led the round, joined by Sequoia, SoftBank, and TPG. Annual revenue has already hit $13B and is expected to top $20B by year-end. The AI race is red-hot.

• 💥 Perplexity-backed Astra shutters amid co-founder split: Despite early promise in AI-powered sales automation, Astra is calling it quits after founder disagreements derailed momentum. The shutdown highlights growing execution risks in the crowded AI agent space.

🧠 Chai Break Trivia

🧊 Did you know there's a hotel in Sweden that's rebuilt entirely out of ice every year?

The ICEHOTEL in Jukkasjärvi is made from blocks of ice cut from the nearby Torne River. Artists from around the world design its rooms, beds, and even a frozen bar — all of which melt back into the river come spring. It’s the coolest check-in you’ll ever make… literally.

🔮 What’s Brewing Next

• 🏦 RBI rate decision: Markets are betting on a rate cut. A dovish signal could bring relief to banks, NBFCs, and consumers alike.

☕ That’s a wrap for August 4, folks!

If you’re feeling the Monday blues, remember: the global economy may be unstable, but your morning chai is always dependable. We’ll be back tomorrow with more brews, less gloom, and all the spice that matters.

Until then, sip smart. Stay spicy. ☕